Forget 2020: Here Are 21 Luxury Projections for 2021 and Beyond

Key Takeaways:

• Following a once in a lifetime crisis, the next decade of luxury growth is likely to be impressive, though brands should not rely on recipes of the past.

• Women, Chinese and youth will feed the pyramid of luxury, ensuring brands will thrive while distribution will change completely.

• Societal change and a shift from products to purpose will transform the luxury industry as we know it.

Many commentators will say that a new decade starts in a year ending “0” and may be wrong. A minority will say a new decade starts in a year ending “1” and could be right. I am not taking sides, but just looking at the next Luxe Decade, I have predicted 21 outcomes for 2021 and beyond. These outcomes are full of hope, so here is wishing you all the best for the next decade.

1. Because luxury sales are essentially driven by female purchases, the limited number of top female executives in the sector is fast becoming an embarrassment — or if it is not, it should be. Luxury has long been driven by a macho culture, but there is no scarcity of female talent in the industry. In the next ten years, I predict that the majority of board members and at least 25 percent of brand CEOs will be female.

2. While credibility and sales of Chinese brands should increase dramatically in subsegments such as consumer staples or electronics, I project that in ten years’ time, Western brands will still dominate in the traditional luxury segments such as high-end leather goods, watches, and jewelry, as well as in sporting goods and cosmetics.

3. One impact of COVID-19 in 2020 will be to accelerate the shift of consumption of Chinese consumers back to mainland China. The year 2020 should prove to be a bit of an exceptional year for luxury, with Chinese being wary about traveling. Still, in ten years, I believe that more than 75 percent of luxury sales to Chinese citizens will occur in their homeland.

4. The Indian consumer, while still a marginal contributor to luxury sales overall, will become a key contributor to the sector’s growth, giving some hope as Chinese growth gradually slows between now and the late 2020s.

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